Polls now show that Canada’s 2025 federal election will be a competitive race, a scenario few predicted earlier this year. A Léger poll once showed the Liberals leading by a staggering 26 points. As the election nears, the key question on voters’ minds will likely be: who can best defend Canada’s sovereignty against growing threats from the U.S. and economic challenges? Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s hopes of a race focused on opposing Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax are now complicated by Mark Carney’s rise as the new Liberal leader. As support for the Liberals surges, questions arise about Poilievre’s ability to adjust to this shifting political landscape.
The Shifting Political Landscape in Canada
The arrival of Mark Carney as the new Liberal leader and potential Prime Minister has reshaped the political scene in Canada. Poilievre’s once-clear path to victory, centered around fighting against the carbon tax and Trudeau’s policies, now seems less certain. The rise of Carney, a former central banker with extensive experience, has given the Liberals an unexpected boost. While it was once thought that Poilievre’s populist rhetoric would propel him to success, the changing political environment in 2025 has left the Conservative leader struggling to adapt.
The Influence of ‘Tory Syndrome’
Historically, the Conservative Party has faced struggles stemming from factionalism and an “opposition mentality.” This phenomenon, described by political analyst George Perlin in his 1980 book The Tory Syndrome, explains how these structural defects have contributed to repeated electoral defeats for the Conservative Party. Perlin’s analysis draws on leadership struggles in the old Progressive Conservative Party, particularly the 1967 and 1976 leadership races, to argue that the party’s tendency toward internal division and negative campaigning often results in poor electoral outcomes.
Perlin’s theory of the “minority party syndrome” suggests that internal conflict within Conservative parties leads to repeated defeats. This was evident when Stephen Harper stepped down as party leader in 2015. The party struggled to unify behind leaders like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, both of whom were eventually ousted following election losses in 2019 and 2021, respectively. Poilievre’s leadership, while popular among certain factions, has yet to overcome these historical challenges.
Poilievre’s Populist Approach and Its Limits
Since becoming Conservative leader in 2022, Poilievre has embraced a populist approach that has rallied the party’s base. His rhetoric, often aggressive and combative, has been seen as a response to the growing support for more moderate political figures. However, his continued focus on issues like the carbon tax and Trudeau’s leadership has not been enough to unite the broader electorate. As the 2025 election draws nearer, the political dynamics have changed significantly, and Poilievre is being forced to reconsider his approach.
In 2024, many believed Poilievre’s populist message would resonate with voters, especially as right-wing populism surged globally. However, with Carney now leading the Liberals and U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continuing to impact Canada, Poilievre’s style is being re-evaluated by voters. What was once seen as an effective attack on Trudeau and his policies now risks alienating key moderates.
The Challenge of Rebranding in 2025
Voters who were once sympathetic to Poilievre’s criticism of Trudeau’s leadership and economic policies are now questioning whether his rhetoric is too negative. In the past, Poilievre’s slogan that “Canada is broken” seemed to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. However, in the face of genuine threats to Canada’s sovereignty, especially from the United States, this message may now seem overly pessimistic and divisive.
In response, Poilievre’s critics argue that his combative style, while effective in opposition, has failed to present a compelling vision for Canada’s future. According to Perlin’s theory, political parties that are consistently in opposition tend to focus more on criticism than offering real solutions. This mindset can contribute to an image of negativity and a lack of positive ideas, ultimately hurting the party’s appeal to the broader electorate.
The Politics of Division and the Need for Unity
As Poilievre’s campaign faces mounting challenges, some argue that he must distance himself from the more extreme factions within his base, particularly those who remain sympathetic to Trump and his “Make America Great Again” agenda. His rhetoric, which often focuses on attacking the current government, risks alienating voters who are looking for unity and a sense of national pride amid increasing geopolitical tensions.
Perlin’s analysis suggests that Poilievre must shift his approach from negative campaigning to presenting a positive vision for Canada. While the opposition mentality may have worked in the past, it may no longer be effective in the face of the unprecedented challenges facing the country. In 2025, voters may be seeking a leader who can unite Canadians, rather than one who continues to focus on division and criticism.
The Road Ahead for Poilievre and the Conservative Party
As the 2025 federal election approaches, Pierre Poilievre faces a critical moment in his leadership. The rise of Mark Carney and the changing political landscape have forced him to reconsider his strategy. While his populist message has energized a portion of the Conservative base, it may no longer be enough to win over the broader electorate. Poilievre will need to adapt to the new political realities and find a way to unite his party and the country if he hopes to secure victory.
