The world’s energy systems are changing rapidly, and solar power is at the heart of this transformation. Crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to provide up to 80% of global energy by 2050. This is due to its affordability, efficiency, and ongoing technological improvements. As c-Si becomes more advanced, it could soon dominate the energy market, although challenges remain.
Crystalline Silicon: The Leader in Solar Energy
Crystalline silicon has become the standard in solar technology. It now makes up about 95% of the global PV market. This widespread adoption is due to its proven reliability, strong manufacturing infrastructure, and decreasing costs. While other technologies exist, c-Si remains the leading choice for large-scale energy production. Its consistent development makes it a top contender for meeting the world’s growing energy needs.
The Rapid Growth of Solar Installations
Solar PV installations are on an exponential growth path, expected to double every three years for the next four decades. By 2050, projections suggest that solar PV could reach 80 terawatts (TW) of total capacity. This growth is a direct result of the technology becoming more affordable and efficient. As the cost of solar continues to drop, it will play a larger role in the global energy mix.
A Legacy of Continuous Innovation
Crystalline silicon has evolved significantly since the 1980s. The technology’s improvement is marked by several key stages:
Aluminium Back Surface Field (Al-BSF) Era (1980s-2017)
This foundational era focused on reducing energy loss and improving efficiency.
Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) Era (2018-Present)
PERC technology improved solar cells by adding a rear-side passivation layer, boosting efficiency to 20-23%.
Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) Era (2020s)
TOPCon enhanced solar cell efficiency further, reaching 23-25%, by reducing recombination losses and increasing light absorption.
Future: TOPCon-IBC (TBC)
The next generation of technology, TBC, is expected to achieve efficiencies over 27%. It combines the TOPCon approach with interdigitated back contact (IBC) technology.
Although new tandem technologies are on the horizon, they are not expected to significantly impact the market in the short term due to challenges in stability, process uniformity, and cost.
Solar’s Cost-Effectiveness
The economic viability of any energy source is crucial. The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is a key metric for measuring how affordable an energy source is. Crystalline silicon has driven solar’s LCOE to record lows, making it one of the cheapest energy sources available.
According to a Lazard report, solar PV has already surpassed traditional fossil fuels like natural gas, coal, and nuclear power in cost-effectiveness. Even when accounting for energy storage, solar still offers a more affordable solution. As fossil fuel prices rise, solar is increasingly seen as the most cost-effective option for energy generation.
The Global Rise of Solar Power
Around the world, solar is expected to be the cheapest energy source in the near future. A study by Nijsse et al. confirmed that fossil fuels are no longer becoming cheaper, while solar and wind energy costs continue to fall. In countries like Pakistan, solar PV is already being installed at an impressive rate. In 2024, Pakistan installed 22 GW of PV capacity, driven by lower module prices and rising electricity costs.
This large-scale solar growth in developing nations showcases the potential of PV to provide energy even without the need for major grid expansions. With the increasing affordability of solar, many regions will soon turn to PV as the primary source of power.
Solar’s Path to Global Dominance
The global shift to solar will continue. In the coming years, PV is expected to surpass wind energy as the world’s most cost-effective power source. The increasing efficiency of c-Si technology, such as the move from 23% efficiency with TOPCon to 26% with TBC, will help solar meet this demand. By 2033, a manufacturing capacity of 3 terawatts (TW) will be achieved, supporting the global transition to renewable energy.
A Solar-Powered Future
The rise of crystalline silicon in the solar industry is undeniable. With continuous improvements in technology and cost reduction, solar PV will become the dominant energy source worldwide by 2050. The global energy transition will be powered by the innovations in c-Si technology, alongside advancements in storage and recycling technologies.
As governments and businesses push for renewable energy solutions, crystalline silicon will play a key role in the transition to a more sustainable energy future. The next few years will see more countries embracing solar as the most efficient and economical way to power their grids.
